Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?
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People have been predicting Microsoft's downfall for most of my working life, but it hasn't happened and I don't see much changing in the next 10 years or so. Most people still prefer using Office on a Windows PC and I can't see anything that will change that in the short term - not iPads, not Linux, not Android.
So to the answer the question. In 5 to 15 years time I see Microsoft in pretty much the same position they are in now, possibly with a slightly smaller market share.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
People have been predicting Microsoft's downfall for most of my working life, but it hasn't happened and I don't see much changing in the next 10 years or so. Most people still prefer using Office on a Windows PC and I can't see anything that will change that in the short term - not iPads, not Linux, not Android.
I don't know.... it seems like a pretty obvious picture. They gutted the apps to prep them for moving to other platforms in 2013, they continued that in 2016. They've moved from nothing on Linux to the hosted apps on Linux (and everything else) during that time. It looks like a pretty solid, unified vision to get Office off of Windows as a massive investment from Microsoft that they have been working on for years.
As a Linux MS Office user, it seems like a pretty obvious picture that they've been getting ready to make it really good for years.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
So to the answer the question. In 5 to 15 years time I see Microsoft in pretty much the same position they are in now, possibly with a slightly smaller market share.
Interesting. You are the first that I've seen feel this way. What I've seen is the polar opposite in what people predict - that MS will be a platform agnostic hosting vendor with more market share.
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Market share is probably not the right metric as they're in so many different industries. Their market share will increase in some industries and decrease in others. What I meant was overall I think it's more likely that they will lose more market share in some industries than they gain in others, although as technology generally increases they could still grow as a company (ie they will have a smaller share of a much larger pie).
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
Market share is probably not the right metric as they're in so many different industries. Their market share will increase in some industries and decrease in others. What I meant was overall I think it's more likely that they will lose more market share in some industries than they gain in others, although as technology generally increases they could still grow as a company (ie they will have a smaller share of a much larger pie).
Let me reword it. I think that their profits will increase as they become a strong company focusing on their strengths (applications) and backing off on their weaknesses (operating systems.)
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I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
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@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
Not to mention the ISS. . . . (and every other critical piece of equipment in space)
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@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
Keep in mind that is just Windows10.....
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@Minion-Queen said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
Keep in mind that is just Windows10.....
That's fair.
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Like I said above, a smaller piece of a massively growing pie can still be a pretty huge piece of pie and be seen as a strength (not a weakness) for Microsoft.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Yeah, for Windows that isn't a good number. Their size is shrinking as the market grows. That's not good. And the desktop is their best spot. Their server market is being destroyed. And as that goes. the desktops become that much more precarious. It's their foundation that is eroding.
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@Minion-Queen said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
Keep in mind that is just Windows10.....
If they aren't running Windows 10 by now, that means that they are not Microsoft customers any longer. They might not have moved to Linux, but they've left the Microsoft fold. Those are vestiges, not market numbers.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
Like I said above, a smaller piece of a massively growing pie can still be a pretty huge piece of pie and be seen as a strength (not a weakness) for Microsoft.
Yes, but the piece is smaller. Not just smaller compared to the pie, just smaller. Windows has almost totally lost its mobile component (and they've given up there.) And it's laptop market is shrinking very rapidly. And even the desktop is shrinking a little. Between competitors getting better and years of continuous desktop missteps, MS just isn't the desktop power it was in 2008.
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One of the biggest desktop missteps that I think Microsoft could've made were Vista and Windows 8.
The entire 8 platform was built around mobile devices (tablets and such). Destroying their go to layout like that was a very damaging event.
Vista was just bad all around, and was of the "every other OS" cycle that Microsoft has had for decades.
Where you literally have to skip every other OS because they use that OS as a dev playground.
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In the next 5 years I see Microsoft converting their big makers, like Exchange and SQL to work on all enterprise platforms.
Maybe even working to get Office (outlook specifically) installable onto the same platforms. CentOS etc.
At 10 years, they won't develop OS platforms at all, at least for the server world. They'll keep things around because of the consumer level, and contracts with hardware developers for the time being.
15 years, they'll be a complete SaaS company.
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@DustinB3403 said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
In the next 5 years I see Microsoft converting their big makers, like Exchange and SQL to work on all enterprise platforms.
Maybe even working to get Office (outlook specifically) installable onto the same platforms. CentOS etc.
At 10 years, they won't develop OS platforms at all, at least for the server world. They'll keep things around because of the consumer level, and contracts with hardware developers for the time being.
15 years, they'll be a complete SaaS company.
SQL is already available for some Linux derivatives. So we're well on our way there.
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OK, I'll return to this thread in 15 years time and remind you all I was right.
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@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@DustinB3403 said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
In the next 5 years I see Microsoft converting their big makers, like Exchange and SQL to work on all enterprise platforms.
Maybe even working to get Office (outlook specifically) installable onto the same platforms. CentOS etc.
At 10 years, they won't develop OS platforms at all, at least for the server world. They'll keep things around because of the consumer level, and contracts with hardware developers for the time being.
15 years, they'll be a complete SaaS company.
SQL is already available for some Linux derivatives. So we're well on our way there.
As is a lot of MS Office.
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@coliver said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
@Carnival-Boy said in Where do you see Microsoft in 5, 10, and 15 years?:
I don't disagree with what you say about profits, although there's a risk that increased competition will squeeze them.
But I don't see how operating systems are a weakness - over 400m devices running Windows 10 so far?
Compared to the billion-ish devices running the Linux kernel?
This is a completely unfair comparison. Windows was not really (until Win10 IOT) meant to be on integrated devices.. Sure they had that failed experiment Windows CE (though for a failed setup, they still sold millions of devices with it on them.)
