Posts made by PenguinWrangler

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

So only people who stop working get GBI? Why in the hell should the people working pay for the slackers?

And BOOM, exactly why it won't work in America. Because the "fair" ethics come out. It's not "fair" for people to get paid and we are willing to LOSE money, to stop other people from getting perceived benefits.

This is exactly why I explained that American ethic effect earlier, because this is always, in the end, why Americans dislike this plan. Even though they would get more out of it, they aren't willing to do so because they perceive people on GBI as slackers and will hurt themselves before they let everyone benefit.

And BOOM exactly why I don't think our country can exist much longer together. We have people that are too ideologically divergent to coexist together much longer.

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

So let's say because of GBI you can now live on $25,000.00 a year. plus $500.00 for each child (That is what I pay in child support).

So total cost for GBI for adults and children added together would be $6,336,827,689,000.00

That number makes no sense. You are assuming that the entire population will stop working and go to minimum income. That's not how it works. If that happened, there would be no doctors, no military, like you have in your budgets. No government, even.

In reality, the number would be tiny compared to this. Most people would keep working. Loads would not, no one knows exactly how many, but tons and tons of people would keep working because they want more than the minimum income level.

And the people most likely to stop working are the ones early lesser amounts. So the impact on income tax would be far less than it seems, possibly nominal.

So only people who stop working get GBI? Why in the hell should the people working pay for the slackers?

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Not mentioning any other expenses the Federal government has Military, personnel, etc. which would be:
Military: $866,000,000,000
Other: $766,000,000,000

You have overlapping costs here. Most of the cost of military is in salaries. So you are counting all of that twice.

No I am not look here Defense then all other spending:

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

One of the big things we expect to happen in the future is the potential to combine things like self driving cars, Uber-style ride sharing, and GBI. Even in America, suddenly you'd not need to own a car any more. Going to work would need to pay for commuting costs, not going to work would save that. So you can imagine how much less money would be needed in an economy with many fewer cars, much less overall driving, less wear and tear on roads (reducing the number of road workers needed), etc. Individuals on GBI would not need to own cars, pay car insurance, or even deal with getting licenses. All things that would be available to them if they wanted, but totally unnecessary. Reducing cost of living even further.

I find the "not needing to own a car" to be a little ridiculous especially for people in the rural areas. There won't be any ridesharing happening in the far-flung rural areas. Heck most of them can't even get cable because the cable company doesn't see them as enough of a profit to run the cable out to them.

Okay, so this is how I see it.

The population of the US over age 18, approximately 252,063,800
The population of the US under age 18 approximately 73,655,378
Source: https://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/99-total-population-by-child-and-adult#detailed/1/any/false/871,870,573,869,36,868,867,133,38,35/39,40,41/416,417

Social security budget for 2018: $992,500,000,000.00
Medicare Budget for 2018: $588,400,000,000.00
Medicaid Budget for 2018: $551,700,000,000.00
Other Welfare for 2018: $358,900,000,000.00
Total of these benefits: $2,491,500,000,000.00
Source: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_welfare_spending_40.html

So let's say because of GBI you can now live on $25,000.00 a year. plus $500.00 for each child (That is what I pay in child support).

So total cost for GBI for adults and children added together would be $6,336,827,689,000.00

Universal Health Care would have to factor into that. Estimates range from 1.3 Trillion to 2.8 Trillion and higher. So I took the average of 1.3 Trillion (Bernie Sanders' plan estimate) and the higher 2.8 Trillion number that his opponents say is more likely. It comes out to: $2,050,000,000,000.00 just over 2 Trillion dollars.

So Adding all this up it comes to:

$6,336,827,689,000.00 Total Money for GBI
$2,050,000,000,000.00 Universal Health Care system
$-992,500,000,000.00 Social Security can be subtracted because everyone would get GBI
$-588,400,000,000.00 Medicaid and Medicare can be subtracted because everyone gets Universal Healthcare
$-551,700,000,000.00 Medicaid and Medicare can be subtracted because everyone gets Universal Healthcare
$-358,900,000,000.00 Other welfare can be eliminated because again everyone gets the GBI

Which leaves a total cost of $5,895,327,689,000.00

Not mentioning any other expenses the Federal government has Military, personnel, etc. which would be:
Military: $866,000,000,000
Other: $766,000,000,000
Source: Source: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_welfare_spending_40.html
Total US Budget would be: $7,527,327,689,000.00

Federal revenue for Tax Year 2017 was $3.32 trillion, the savings would have to be astronomical for this to work.
Source: https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-tax-revenue-3305762

Gross Domestic Product for the US in 2017 was $19,485,400,000,000

Assuming it doesn't plummet the tax rate would have to be at 39% or higher to cover the cost. So if the coming job apocalypse happens due to automation, maybe we need to do this, until we have proof I really don't want to throw a wrench into the engine that has moved more people out poverty than any other single thing ever in the history of the world. There are three basic rules in the USA for staying out of poverty that is proven to be true for all people, and races:

1. Graduating from high school.
2. Waiting to get married until after 21 and do not have children till after being married.
3. Having a full-time job.

Doing those three things your chances of falling into poverty is just 2% and you have a 74% chance of being middle class. (Source:http://www.jacksonville.com/opinion/editorials/2012-01-27/story/three-rules-staying-out-poverty) So personal decisions are the biggest factor where you will end up. So if #3 does become a problem we can address and we might very well need to in the future.

However, I also want to point out unless you will be willing to manage people's GBI for them there will be people that won't spend their GBI Money wisely and will still be dirt poor. What do we do then, because the other social welfare programs are now gone. Do we just let them starve to death?

So how much a year are we talking about? How much would everyone get? What are the general numbers people suggest?

@momurda said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

Taxes are similar. Tax reporting could be standardized and made automatic. Tell the government your details, pay your taxes. Same for everyone. But that would destroy an industry. So they don't, they make taxes convoluted so that people essentially have to either buy software or pay accountants to do work that shouldn't exist. It's all busy work just to create jobs.

Sure there are industries that will fade away, happens all the time. To think that the economy won't come up with jobs that don't even exist right now to fill the void is a little ludicrous. I mean Information Technology didn't exist when my parents were in school.

This is wrong; starting in a few years when automation takes over everything. I dont think you understand the scale of the next round of automation in the workplace. 19/20 jobs driving, gone. That is millions of jobs just in the US. Fast food workers, gone in ten years. You arent replacing hundreds of millions of trucking and McDs and other manufacturing jobs with 'robot repairman' jobs. Especially since the robots will likely be throwaway cheap disposable like ipads and cell phones.
Like you say, many of these types of people dont want to learn anything, ever, like your dad(your words). Youd rather have those people starving in the streets with no income and no home?

Never said my Dad didn't want to learn anything, he just didn't want to go to college and learn in that way. Honestly, I could probably quit my job now and make handmade furniture that is beautiful and make as much money as I make now. Which would be something that won't be replaced by automation because it is an art form. From which my Dad taught me how to do.

@jaredbusch said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@jaredbusch said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Still wondering where the money comes from.

/sigh

FFS, the same place it does now.

No one has ever stated that no one would work. That would be species stagnation.

I am sorry that I want details, before I get on a bandwagon to totally change my ideas and how things have worked in my country since well my country was founded.

Worked well in this country? Bullshit.

that was a typo.

@jaredbusch said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Still wondering where the money comes from.

/sigh

FFS, the same place it does now.

No one has ever stated that no one would work. That would be species stagnation.

I am sorry that I want details, before I get on a bandwagon to totally change my ideas and how things have worked in my country since my country was founded.

Still wondering where the money comes from.

@jaredbusch said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Yeah this post proves he doens't understand the entire concept of GBI

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

1.) If everyone has GBI, do other government benefits go away? Food stamps, SNAP, etc since you should have the money to buy food and basic needs?

2.) where does the money come from? The government gets it money from taxing. People's income, sale's tax, etc. If someone works are they excluded from GBI? Is your GBI taxed? Are they taxed higher than those of GBI in order to pay for GBI.

3.) On a philosophical note, does the government not control you once they give you a GBI?

There are different competing theories to GBI.

@penguinwrangler said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Here we are, moved the GBI discussion out here.

So are we talking about GBI? My main point was it was obvious that the author looks down on blue collar jobs, why else would you call them shit jobs? I agree there are useless jobs. I don't agree that there are people that actively work to create these jobs to keep people from being idle. I believe they are an outgrowth of human inefficiency, government bureaucracy, and people trying to protect their jobs from automation. Just to sum up my points.

So what I want to know is this and I am trying to approach GBI with an open mind so these are my genuine questions.

1.) If everyone has GBI, do other government benefits go away? Food stamps, SNAP, etc since you should have the money to buy food and basic needs?

2.) where does the money come from? The government gets it money from taxing. People's income, sale's tax, etc. If someone works are they excluded from GBI? Is your GBI taxed? Are they taxed higher than those of GBI in order to pay for GBI.

3.) On a philosophical note, does the government not control you once they give you a GBI?

4.) Also what about child support? Considering the government is now giving you income for your basic needs and I would assume your children, child support wouldn't be needed after a divorce.

@scottalanmiller said in Discussing Basic Income from Forbes Article:

Here we are, moved the GBI discussion out here.

So are we talking about GBI? My main point was it was obvious that the author looks down on blue collar jobs, why else would you call them shit jobs? I agree there are useless jobs. I don't agree that there are people that actively work to create these jobs to keep people from being idle. I believe they are an outgrowth of human inefficiency, government bureaucracy, and people trying to protect their jobs from automation. Just to sum up my points.

So what I want to know is this and I am trying to approach GBI with an open mind so these are my genuine questions.

1.) If everyone has GBI, do other government benefits go away? Food stamps, SNAP, etc since you should have the money to buy food and basic needs?

2.) where does the money come from? The government gets it money from taxing. People's income, sale's tax, etc. If someone works are they excluded from GBI? Is your GBI taxed? Are they taxed higher than those of GBI in order to pay for GBI.

3.) On a philosophical note, does the government not control you once they give you a GBI?

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

Also before automation was available we needed humans to do it so we might eventually see pharmacists phased out but it does take time for things to adjust. So you can't say people are just employed as pharmacists to occupy their time.

Yes, but "phased out" would have been long ago. It's been a long time since the field was only to occupy peoples' time.

Many fields have lobbies to keep jobs in place through government intervention because it makes money for the people involved. It's more complex than ONLY being a hidden form of deceptive welfare. It's also straight up corruption, through lobbyists. But the lobbyists aren't dissuaded to heavily, since it also creates a way to reduce the welfare roles. The government benefits, too.

Okay, so there is a lobbyist group on behalf of pharmacists created to protect pharmacists and slow down automation of their field and keep their jobs. That is typical human behavior to preserve their jobs and fields from automation and not some big conspiracy just to employ people in useless jobs.

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

Instead of a cleaner, who likely literally makes dirty things clean. Think of a trench digger who digs unneeded trenches that are just filled in again. Working "with their hands" to no end, just digging to dig.

Would your dad have been equally happy doing that if the pay was the same as sitting home with his kids?

I have never seen people out that dig trenches just to fill them up again. Where does that happen? Useless positions in big corporations or government, sure those are there like the person in the article highlights. Where are people employed en masse to just occupy their time? You mention pharmacists earlier. Sure maybe they could automate most of what a pharmacist does, but there are drug cocktails that do take a pharmacist to actually make. Also before automation was available we needed humans to do it so we might eventually see pharmacists phased out but it does take time for things to adjust. So you can't say people are just employed as pharmacists to occupy their time.

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@momurda said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@momurda said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler He's certainly not demeaning blue collar jobs.
He is demeaning the useless paper pushing jobs that don't do anything.
Like half of the people at any given office get paid to do.
You know, the paper pushers who do paperwork, then push that pile of paper (real or electronic) down the line for someone else to do more paperwork and then they push that on down the line. The people who have jobs simply because that the boss wont automate, find out that they go to weekly cult meetings together. The people whose entire existence is to do nothing but show up and collect a paycheck. the one that needs constant validation after completing the most menial task.

OHHHH...but wait it says "If a cleaner or bus driver doesn’t report for work, it hurts other people. (These Graeber terms “shit” jobs.)" So calling blue collar jobs shit jobs isn't demeaning?

@penguinwrangler Not sure what your point is. Those Are 'shit' jobs. Dont believe me, go ask your dad if he would have rather gone to school and got a engineering degree or maybe physics, or work cleaning toilets his whole life?
Likely anybody in the world who works as one would like to have a different job. But at least those jobs are doing actual work, getting things done. The useless office worker paper pusher is accomplishing nothing at all, except wasting their life but pushing piles of paper around. Also, I think youre misunderstanding the author here. He doesn't apply bullshit term to cleaners and such. He applies this to the people I mention, paper pushers, financial advisers, etc. He actually says 'shit' jobs like cleaning toilets is more valuable than a financial adviser, one of his 'bullshit' job types.

I do get it and I do understand the person who has the BS job as the author puts it and is doing nothing and sure eliminate those jobs. My Dad didn't want to go to school, he didn't want to be an engineer or anything like that. He wanted to work with his hands. Many people do. My step-son wants to work with his hands. He doesn't want to go to school. He couldn't have been happier the day he graduated High School.

The problem here is that cleaners are useful so it's a terrible example of "useless work". Cleaners are one of the most likely to be useful positions out there.

I am not saying that the author was saying the cleaners were useless work, in fact they say "If a cleaner or bus driver doesn’t report for work, it hurts other people. (These Graeber terms “shit” jobs.)" He still can't comprehend someone wanting to be a cleaner or bus driver. That is my main point. Honestly, I can do IT, I am good at it but I don't like it. If I didn't have all the back problems I have I would have gone into the construction trades or something like that.

My main point is our education system stears people to the useless work instead of the useful work.

@momurda said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@momurda said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler He's certainly not demeaning blue collar jobs.
He is demeaning the useless paper pushing jobs that don't do anything.
Like half of the people at any given office get paid to do.
You know, the paper pushers who do paperwork, then push that pile of paper (real or electronic) down the line for someone else to do more paperwork and then they push that on down the line. The people who have jobs simply because that the boss wont automate, find out that they go to weekly cult meetings together. The people whose entire existence is to do nothing but show up and collect a paycheck. the one that needs constant validation after completing the most menial task.

OHHHH...but wait it says "If a cleaner or bus driver doesn’t report for work, it hurts other people. (These Graeber terms “shit” jobs.)" So calling blue collar jobs shit jobs isn't demeaning?

@penguinwrangler Not sure what your point is. Those Are 'shit' jobs. Dont believe me, go ask your dad if he would have rather gone to school and got a engineering degree or maybe physics, or work cleaning toilets his whole life?
Likely anybody in the world who works as one would like to have a different job. But at least those jobs are doing actual work, getting things done. The useless office worker paper pusher is accomplishing nothing at all, except wasting their life but pushing piles of paper around. Also, I think youre misunderstanding the author here. He doesn't apply bullshit term to cleaners and such. He applies this to the people I mention, paper pushers, financial advisers, etc. He actually says 'shit' jobs like cleaning toilets is more valuable than a financial adviser, one of his 'bullshit' job types.

I do get it and I do understand the person who has the BS job as the author puts it and is doing nothing and sure eliminate those jobs. My Dad didn't want to go to school, he didn't want to be an engineer or anything like that. He wanted to work with his hands. Many people do. My step-son wants to work with his hands. He doesn't want to go to school. He couldn't have been happier the day he graduated High School.

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

@dustinb3403 said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

Taxes are similar. Tax reporting could be standardized and made automatic. Tell the government your details, pay your taxes. Same for everyone. But that would destroy an industry. So they don't, they make taxes convoluted so that people essentially have to either buy software or pay accountants to do work that shouldn't exist. It's all busy work just to create jobs.

Sure there are industries that will fade away, happens all the time. To think that the economy won't come up with jobs that don't even exist right now to fill the void is a little ludicrous. I mean Information Technology didn't exist when my parents were in school.

But jobs have been created since their time, and absolutely IT existed when your parents were around. The difference is a lot of the jobs can literally be automated, usually at massive scales.

It's not just automation. That's big, of course. But also we just need to recognize that many jobs exist just to keep idle hands busy. The government doesn't want to report that people don't have jobs, and they don't want people idle, it makes other people angry. So they come up with ways to employ people, even if the results of their work don't matter.

Sounds like a very big conspiracy. I do sell tin foil hats if you need a new one.

It's just basic economics. Ever heard of the WPA?

You mean the bloated government program the prolonged the depression and should have never happened, yes.

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

@dustinb3403 said in Non-IT News Thread:

@penguinwrangler said in Non-IT News Thread:

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

Taxes are similar. Tax reporting could be standardized and made automatic. Tell the government your details, pay your taxes. Same for everyone. But that would destroy an industry. So they don't, they make taxes convoluted so that people essentially have to either buy software or pay accountants to do work that shouldn't exist. It's all busy work just to create jobs.

Sure there are industries that will fade away, happens all the time. To think that the economy won't come up with jobs that don't even exist right now to fill the void is a little ludicrous. I mean Information Technology didn't exist when my parents were in school.

But jobs have been created since their time, and absolutely IT existed when your parents were around. The difference is a lot of the jobs can literally be automated, usually at massive scales.

It's not just automation. That's big, of course. But also we just need to recognize that many jobs exist just to keep idle hands busy. The government doesn't want to report that people don't have jobs, and they don't want people idle, it makes other people angry. So they come up with ways to employ people, even if the results of their work don't matter.

Sounds like a very big conspiracy. I do sell tin foil hats if you need a new one.

@scottalanmiller said in Non-IT News Thread:

Cleaners are interesting in this framework, because cleaning isn't a useless job, we need things to be cleaned. But often the cleaning is done to clean things for people doing useless jobs. If we eliminate, say, 50% of useless paper pushing jobs, how many bus drivers, cleaners, and other roles also disappear because while real themselves, they were ultimately supporting unneeded work?

But as humans we are flawed. I am not perfect, I am not 100% efficient. I mean the only way to 100% efficiency and no waste is to have everything done by automation. So there are always useless jobs.