Just How Hard is University to Overcome
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
You are lumping in people with Church Recreation Majors (Yes this is a major, and oddly the only person I know who has it, makes over 100K, although not doing anything related to the major).
Right, on the college side church rec majors are included. On the non-college side, people intending to never do anything but be a cashier at Mcdonald's are included. This "lumping" favours the college system in the stats.
It wouldn't surprise me if Baylor graduates a hell of a lot more family consumer sciences degree's (home Ec) than it does pre-med (It's a top program but not a lot of graduates). The person who doesn't want to do anything but be a cashier at McDonald's is going to have a VERY small ven diagram with Economics degree seekers accepted to the University of Chicago.
I agree it should be considered more strongly, but I think some VERY simple rules could be established for people seeking college.
Have a plan for graduating with less than xxx debt, or expense.
If you are going to be out of work xxx number of years and incur xxx cost, you need to make sure the program at the university is going to generate yyy impact.Avoid Tier 3 schools, for profits, degree's in animal husbandry and philosophy.
Seek out: Tier 1 schools below xxx cost, majors [top 10] at schools that are a [top 10] for that degree. -
Unfortunately, truly meaningful stats are impossible to get. Determining who "could have" done college and how that would have gone is subjective. And which college kids "could have" taught themselves vs. those that needed college to get them by as they simply weren't good enough to do it without college but could with college is likewise, a guess. Going to college and skipping college create their own causes and effects that are so much more dramatic than purely the college attendance decision.
What we know is that attending college takes away the greatest opportunity to demonstrate motivation, critical thinking and self education that anyone is offered during their lifetimes; and that what few stats we get show that college doesn't pay off on the pure averages and that logically the way the stats are they dramatically favour the college system. Those are what we have to work with. Does college have value? yes and no. Can college have value, yes. But the value is not intrinsic to college, it's just that college doesn't remove the potential for value.
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
We don't really have good stats yet due to the FIELD being too young to have produced full career lengths yet, but IT is likely to operate in the same way with people working in the field until they drop. IT might be more demanding than most fields, but it also requires far less physical demands and has a tendency to keep the mind sharp and moving from things like administration to planning and design can make staying in the field right up till you drop very plausible.
I've never seen anyone work in IT at 80 besides Ross (He's in management still at the Godplex last I heard, although I'm not sure if he's still around after the sale to NTT). Someone willing to hire mercenaries and violate international law is the kind of guy I'd rather work for....
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
You are lumping in people with Church Recreation Majors (Yes this is a major, and oddly the only person I know who has it, makes over 100K, although not doing anything related to the major).
Right, on the college side church rec majors are included. On the non-college side, people intending to never do anything but be a cashier at Mcdonald's are included. This "lumping" favours the college system in the stats.
It wouldn't surprise me if Baylor graduates a hell of a lot more family consumer sciences degree's (home Ec) than it does pre-med (It's a top program but not a lot of graduates). The person who doesn't want to do anything but be a cashier at McDonald's is going to have a VERY small ven diagram with Economics degree seekers accepted to the University of Chicago.
I agree it should be considered more strongly, but I think some VERY simple rules could be established for people seeking college.
Have a plan for graduating with less than xxx debt, or expense.
If you are going to be out of work xxx number of years and incur xxx cost, you need to make sure the program at the university is going to generate yyy impact.Avoid Tier 3 schools, for profits, degree's in animal husbandry and philosophy.
Seek out: Tier 1 schools below xxx cost, majors [top 10] at schools that are a [top 10] for that degree.Of course, and I have written guides on how to select colleges and college programs and college majors all focused around how to get the maximum benefit from the college experience. There are ways to make it relatively likely to not be too bad. But, the issue always is, anyone that is going to seek out, understand and listen to all that advice is almost always the exact same person that has all of the capability of skipping college to great effect. The two, we expect, overlap as groups on the Ven Diagram almost entirely.
-
Another thing that is often overlooked is how college risk plays out. Going to college and losing the time (and money) at that life stage means that college success hopefully pays off and college disaster is life crippling. You might never recover from it. And there is no going back.
Skipping college, however, carries only tiny and delayed risk. You might earn less, but failing when skipping college almost never means major disaster, just "slightly less than ideal income." The college "skipper" also carries the Ace up their sleeve - they can reverse the decision and obtain a degree anytime that they want and rejoin the college group. They don't give up that option by attempting the other approach.
So one approach carries a potentially disastrous risk for small potential gain. While the other carriers very low risk for slightly higher potential gain. If treating the college decision analytically from a financial arbitrage viewpoint, the risk factor makes college scary.
-
There are risk mitigation strategies that students should know about and leverage more often, even when going to school. For example, I strongly recommend students consider "bail" options like starting at a community college and going for an AS/AA first and a BS/BA only after completing the Associates degree. This gives a milestone, a resume boost, and an academic checkpoint and bailpoint halfway through the degree.
If after two years you realize that college isn't for you, you can wrap something up and have options for later. You can pick back up on a BS easily if you want. You have something for your resume. What you want to avoid is putting years into a BS and then not finishing, nothing is worse than that.
The Associates approach gives you way more time to consider your BS/BA options and you'll be far better at deciding what to do for that portion of your academics when you have two years of college experience under your belt.
Some high end public four year schools offer two year degrees along the path, like SUNY Empire, so that you can do the same thing without using a community college, too.
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Unfortunately, truly meaningful stats are impossible to get
The Integrated post secondary Education Data System is pretty damn comprehensive.
One metric, Default rates for a school are a HELL of a good proxy for expected outcome.
Laurus College has a 20% default rate. I can't tell you that someone who didn't go to SUNY would not have made MORE than the 895K 20 Year Net ROI (compared to 24 years, less the cost of school), but that's still a damn impressive number above average.The Department of Education actually has income by major stats for schools.
https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/school/?380438-Provo-College -
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
"bail" options like starting at a community college and going for an AS/AA first and a BS/BA only after completing the Associates degree. This gives a milestone, a resume boost, and an academic checkpoint and bailpoint halfway through the degree.
Personally, I wish I'd taken a skip year. Would have been more valuable to go work for a little bit, and go backpacking Asia for 6 months to figure out what I wanted to do in life.
I never put really any faith in associate degrees. I thought the stats are a lot worse on them?
They do save money, but you cut a lot of the networking shorter coming in as a junior into upper-level classes. My network (that helped me get my first job, and some other key connections) came from those first 2 years of easier classes and more time for.... non-studying activities.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Unfortunately, truly meaningful stats are impossible to get
The Integrated post secondary Education Data System is pretty damn comprehensive.
One metric, Default rates for a school are a HELL of a good proxy for expected outcome.
Laurus College has a 20% default rate. I can't tell you that someone who didn't go to SUNY would not have made MORE than the 895K 20 Year Net ROI (compared to 24 years, less the cost of school), but that's still a damn impressive number above average.The Department of Education actually has income by major stats for schools.
https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/school/?380438-Provo-CollegeThe problem isn't that there aren't stats for those schools, but that there aren't stats for the alternatives. So knowing what an isolated university outcome is likely to be is great, but only tells one side of the story and leaves us with zero information about the other side.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Personally, I wish I'd taken a skip year. Would have been more valuable to go work for a little bit, and go backpacking Asia for 6 months to figure out what I wanted to do in life.
Also highly recommended, they say (I have no stats on this, but I've been told this a bit) that a skip year spent meaningfully traveling (that's not subjective, is it?) is more likely to positively impact lifetime income than finishing a degree will.
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Unfortunately, truly meaningful stats are impossible to get
The Integrated post secondary Education Data System is pretty damn comprehensive.
One metric, Default rates for a school are a HELL of a good proxy for expected outcome.
Laurus College has a 20% default rate. I can't tell you that someone who didn't go to SUNY would not have made MORE than the 895K 20 Year Net ROI (compared to 24 years, less the cost of school), but that's still a damn impressive number above average.The Department of Education actually has income by major stats for schools.
https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/school/?380438-Provo-CollegeThe problem isn't that there aren't stats for those schools, but that there aren't stats for the alternatives. So knowing what an isolated university outcome is likely to be is great, but only tells one side of the story and leaves us with zero information about the other side.
You can find proxies for success that have statistic significance. Economic background, SAT scores, etc. Economists have been studying "why are rich people rich, and poor people poor" for a REALLY long damn time.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
I never put really any faith in associate degrees. I thought the stats are a lot worse on them?
Not when doing the "big averages." If you do the giant full industry averages PHD does the worst, by far, masters and bachelors are really, really close with bachelors just barely ahead and associates beats them all but loses to not doing anything.
Each higher degree takes you farther from the best chances. Or, if you ignore lost opportunity, each has a tiny benefit (except PHD.) No matter how you look at it, PHD never makes sense to do if money is the goal.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Unfortunately, truly meaningful stats are impossible to get
The Integrated post secondary Education Data System is pretty damn comprehensive.
One metric, Default rates for a school are a HELL of a good proxy for expected outcome.
Laurus College has a 20% default rate. I can't tell you that someone who didn't go to SUNY would not have made MORE than the 895K 20 Year Net ROI (compared to 24 years, less the cost of school), but that's still a damn impressive number above average.The Department of Education actually has income by major stats for schools.
https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/school/?380438-Provo-CollegeThe problem isn't that there aren't stats for those schools, but that there aren't stats for the alternatives. So knowing what an isolated university outcome is likely to be is great, but only tells one side of the story and leaves us with zero information about the other side.
You can find proxies for success that have statistic significance. Economic background, SAT scores, etc. Economists have been studying "why are rich people rich, and poor people poor" for a REALLY long damn time.
Find any study for this, though. It's all about motivation and self education. I've never seen anyone do a study that in any way would be useful to compare against college. My guess is that the researchers are all from colleges and know that they'd be defunded if they produced that data.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
They do save money, but you cut a lot of the networking shorter coming in as a junior into upper-level classes. My network (that helped me get my first job, and some other key connections) came from those first 2 years of easier classes and more time for.... non-studying activities.
Typically, but only typically, community colleges let you move faster. Mine, for example, had a policy that once you made the Dean's List the school had no authority to dictate your limits. But the school did have a cost cap at 11 credit hours. Anything over 11 in a semester was free. But only someone on the Dean's List could go over 12 without special approval (easy for 13-14 hours, hard beyond that.) Because I was DL my entire time in school, I took my credits to the limit at 33 credit hours per semester and even took overlapping classes, classes during lunch, even classes, etc. Triple full time for the price of regular full time. Rarely will a four year school allow you to do that.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
I never put really any faith in associate degrees. I thought the stats are a lot worse on them?
Associates degrees have the lowest barrier to entry for the "I'm a college degree holder" mark. Many jobs only say "degree required" or are more willing to negotiate when you have an AS. Because getting one is so easy, they value is easy to justify.
Also, they give you roughly two years of being "degreed" to look for work while you pursue a bachelor's degree which can be handy if you are trying to play both sides of the fence.
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Personally, I wish I'd taken a skip year. Would have been more valuable to go work for a little bit, and go backpacking Asia for 6 months to figure out what I wanted to do in life.
Also highly recommended, they say (I have no stats on this, but I've been told this a bit) that a skip year spent meaningfully traveling (that's not subjective, is it?) is more likely to positively impact lifetime income than finishing a degree will.
Another thing to point out is that The unexamined life is not worth living...
If it's just about wealth, but the quality of life.Could I make more money in some blue collar trade doing 80 hour weeks in physically demanding labor? Sure. But I like what I do, and the travel has secondary benefits and that carries some value. There's always a way to make more money. If there's anything I've learned from internet forums is MANY people have reasons (some are dumb to me, whatever) to not make more money.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
Personally, I wish I'd taken a skip year. Would have been more valuable to go work for a little bit, and go backpacking Asia for 6 months to figure out what I wanted to do in life.
Also highly recommended, they say (I have no stats on this, but I've been told this a bit) that a skip year spent meaningfully traveling (that's not subjective, is it?) is more likely to positively impact lifetime income than finishing a degree will.
Another thing to point out is that The unexamined life is not worth living...
If it's just about wealth, but the quality of life.Could I make more money in some blue collar trade doing 80 hour weeks in physically demanding labor? Sure. But I like what I do, and the travel has secondary benefits and that carries some value.
Sure, but the question is - does college aid or hinder that? And everything we've seen statistically and observationally gives no indication that it aids in that for people in careers where college is optional. I totally agree with the premise, but believe that college makes achieve the more esoteric goals harder to do.
-
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
If there's anything I've learned from internet forums is MANY people have reasons (some are dumb to me, whatever) to not make more money.
Like SAT scores, income potential is a proxy for freedom and power. Tracking income, we assume, gives us insight not just into how much you could earn, but how much value you can get from a career. So, for example, if my goal was not money but the ability to control the location where I work, the length or my day, work from home or weeks of vacation a year, we assume that tracking income in the brackets reflects my ability to demand whatever benefits matter to me.
-
This can't always be true, and I think that money proxies power poorly between career categories. But within a single one, I think that it is pretty useful. For example, a high earning IT pro has more power to dictate what matters to him more than a low earning one. But a high earning IT pro comparing to a comparably paid doctor or pharmacist would not be able to compare.
-
@scottalanmiller said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
@storageninja said in Just How Hard is University to Overcome:
You can find proxies for success that have statistic significance. Economic background, SAT scores, etc. Economists have been studying "why are rich people rich, and poor people poor" for a REALLY long damn time.
Find any study for this, though. It's all about motivation and self education. I've never seen anyone do a study that in any way would be useful to compare against college. My guess is that the researchers are all from colleges and know that they'd be defunded if they produced that data.
I've read a number of studies where they've actually been finding that raw IQ matters more to the question of why the rich people are rich (who didn't inherit it) and the poor are poor more than anything. The problem is of course, there's really not much that can be done if you don't have a high IQ, because there's about nothing anyone can do to improve their IQ. If, as they say, IQ is really just how quickly and efficiently people can process and utilize data, the theory that IQ directly effects probability for success makes a fair bit of sense. They haven't said anything ultra-conclusive in their studies aside from the fact that they found pretty universal links between higher IQ and greater success in general.
It would naturally make sense too that those with higher innate intelligence are more likely to be able to self-teach more content more quickly than those with less, but higher IQ would then also by the same theory penalize those people even more in the University setting. Interestingly enough though, the studies were all being done by big colleges and universities world-wide as a collaborative effort.
